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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Cycle-Based Crypto Strategy

​A long-term strategy that leverages Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle by buying during market lows and exiting gradually near peak phases.

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  • Accumulation Phase (July 2026 – June 2027):
    Purchase Bitcoin monthly using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) approach during the expected post-halving low. This builds a solid position while smoothing volatility.

  • Exit Phase (June – October 2029):
    Sell the full position in five equal tranches (20% each) to reduce timing risk and secure profits as the cycle matures.

  • Sell Criteria:
    Exit signals are based on three technical indicators reaching historic overvaluation zones:

       - MVRV ≥ 3.2–4.0

       - RSI ≥ 80–90

       - SOPR ≥ 1.4–1.8

  • Risk Management:
    Five-stage selling smooths market timing risk. Indicators ensure exits align with market tops. The final tranche is sold when key metrics reverse.

Statue with Bitcoin Glasses

Bitcoin Moving Average Strategy

A monthly trend-following strategy using the 5-month moving average to capture upside momentum and cut losses during sharp declines.

A trend-following approach with automatic downside protection, using monthly momentum signals.

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  • Entry Rule (Monthly Evaluation):
    On the last day of each month, if Bitcoin’s closing price is above the 5-month Simple Moving Average (SMA), a position is taken on the 1st of the next month.

  • Cash Position:
    If the price is below the 5-month SMA, the position is held in cash (with 1.8% assumed return), protecting against downward trends.

  • Exit Rule (Intra-month Risk Control):
    If Bitcoin’s price drops more than 5% from the previous day, the position is exited immediately on the next trading day and held in cash.

  • Monthly Reassessment:
    Entry and exit conditions are reviewed every month, enabling consistent and disciplined execution.

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